October Golf Weather Impact:
Tricks, no Treats
October was not friendly to the golf industry as the northern climates shoulder season continues to disappoint weather-wise. October Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declined 2% compared to the same month last year. That result actually slightly improved our Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit which came down to -5%. Regional GPH breadth for the YtD period didn't change meaningfully with a favorable/unfavorable ratio of 1:4 with 8 favorable regions countered by 30 unfavorable regions (remaining 7 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, the deficit continues to be relatively balanced between weekdays and weekends; every day period is down but to varying degrees as you move from Monday to Sunday. The year-end forecast turned markedly bearish finally yielding to the fact that, with 10 months now behind us, we're in for a moderate down result (compared to our Jan '18 forecast which predicted marginally down for the year). Our Pellucid Publications, Weather Impact and Cognilogic clients are in-the-know on the day of week variances as well as the year-end forecast; if you'd like to be similarly enlightened and have early-warning guidance for marketing and expense decisions, you can subscribe to any of those products using the link at the end of this article.
Played Rounds data for September published by Golf Datatech also disappointed registering -7% for the month vs. YA. The more insightful view, after factoring in weather, is that Utilization was again off due to Pellucid's previously-reported "down" weather for the month (but not 7% down). For the YtD period, prior Utilization gains continue to erode as the deficit in Played Rounds marginally trails unfavorable weather results but at the national level we're still slightly positive for the year. Beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "The October weather results continued to be predominately "red" east of the Rockies although we did see positive "comps" throughout the Ohio Valley as well as FL and Atlanta. For the YtD period, a strong October lifted Southern FL into positive territory but they are the lone "green" until you get to the Pacific coast (north and south). Looking at September YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level, we continue the pattern of favorable breadth to gainers as rounds declines are shallower than weather unfavorability. On the positive side, the market breadth indicator remained at 5:1 (20 markets showing Utilization gains against 5 markets showing declines with the remaining 36 occupying the neutral zone) but the majority result is still Utilization parity (i.e. rounds follow weather pretty much). Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, 6 continue to show Utilization gains with St. Louis leading the pack with a 3+ point gain (they get there with different combinations of demand and weather results though). Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web)."
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you'll be registered for the next edition on 11/15/18.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (firstname.lastname@example.org) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid's Online Store.
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